Talking Postseason: Punching a Ticket to Katy

It's almost time for March Madness, but will the Bobcats be participating in any postseason festivities? Both the men's and women's basketball teams scored huge wins over Northwestern State today, but only one team was able to answer that question with their win. The men's team is now guaranteed at least an 8 seed, while a spot for the women's team is anything but guaranteed. First, we'll take a look at the men's team, who has clinched their 2nd straight Southland Conference tournament berth by way of their big win today...and a little bit of luck, too.

The men's Southland Conference standings as of yesterday paradoxically held a combination of complete certainties and massive amounts of confusion. What we knew was that Sam Houston State had won at least a share of the SLC regular season title and SFA was completely in the tournament. A little less clear were the fates of UT-Arlington and Texas A&M - Corpus Christi, sitting at 8-5 in SLC play, until some math was done by us KTSW Sports nuts and it was determined that either team could lose out and still be in the tournament because they would hold the necessary tiebreakers to do so. It's worth noting, however, that the daunting task of figuring out the tiebreaker math was apparently enough for the Southland Conference website to omit the fact that UTA and TAMU-CC have clinched spots in the tournament.

If you think that is confusing, then the task of figuring out the potential fates of Southeastern Louisiana and UTSA (both then 7-6 in SLC play), Texas State (6-7), and the three-way mess of Northwestern State, Nicholls, and Lamar (all 5-8), would have likely been enough to make Stephen Hawking's head explode.

That's why we say: Thank goodness for Saturday.

Things became much, much clearer after the weekend's slate of games, at least for the first 7 seeds. Southeastern, UTSA, and Texas State all clinched a spot in the tournament with wins, while the triumvirate of 5-8 teams in Nicholls, NWST, and Lamar all lost. So, SHSU, SFA, UTA, TAMU-CC, SLU, UTSA, and Texas State are all guaranteed a trip to Katy.

Texas State is only 7-7 and 7th in the SLC standings, and could still potentially end up tied with one of the four teams with 5-9 SLC records. This would happen if Texas State loses their last two games to UTSA and SHSU and either Nicholls, McNeese, Lamar, or Northwestern State (all 5-9 in SLC play) win out. However, only Nicholls has the head-to-head tiebreaker to jump the Bobcats in tournament seeding out of those four teams. The 'Cats made sure that Demons of NWST could not jump them today, they beat McNeese earlier this season, and they also swept Lamar to prevent a tiebreaker in favor of the Cardinals. However, having Nicholls still in the picture means that Texas State could potentially be the 8th seed and in the unenviable position of having to play the 1st-seeded Sam Houston State Bearkats in the first round.

So, to avoid SHSU and SFA (the guaranteed 2 seed), Texas State will want to try and get as high as a 3 seed. A lot of dominos would have to fall in favor of the Bobcats to get that third seed, and they would have to win out, so shooting for a 5 or 6 seed may be more reasonable. Beating UTSA in San Antonio on Wednesday would be a huge help seeing that the Bobcats would get the tiebreaker from a season sweep. That won't be easy as the once-disappointing Roadrunners have been surging as of late, and going into the Convocation Center will be akin to walking into a hornet's nest. However, it still seems more likely that the Bobcats would win there than beating a Bearkat team that pounded Texas State by 30 in Huntsville next Saturday. With the game being in Strahan on Senior Day, anything could happen in this rivalry game, but SHSU's talent and depth could take over in the end.

Also of interest is who out of the four 5-9 teams will make it into the tournament. Northwestern State still has to play two tough teams in SHSU and Southeastern Louisiana, so they seem to be the least likely of the four to make it. McNeese has a potential laugher at home vs. Central Arkansas on March 6th, but they still have to play Southeastern on Wednesday in Hammond. Lamar and Nicholls both have tough games against Texas A&M - Corpus Christi and UT-Arlington, respectively, but Lamar gets the slight advantage by playing at home while Nicholls travels to Arlington. Following those contests is a crucial game between Lamar and Nicholls on the last day of the regular season, which could possibly determine who gets that last spot. However, it's entirely possible that we could have three teams sitting at 6-10 at the end of the regular season, and it's even possible that all four could be tied at 6-10 if Northwestern State plays well. It's also possible that three out of the four teams could be tied with 7-9 records at the end of the season if McNeese, Northwestern State, and either Nicholls or Lamar wins out. Making that potential situation even more hairy is the fact that Texas State could potentially make that increase to four teams with 7-9 records if they lose out. The 'Cats would still be guaranteed a tourney spot due to the SLC tiebreaker system, but there would be some VERY unhappy statisticians up in the Southland Conference offices in Frisco who would be tasked with figuring out who would get the 7th and 8th seeds.

So, congratulations to the Texas State men's team for making the tournament again. Equally deserving of congratulations is the Bobcat women, who finally put it all together and crushed Northwestern State 76-57 in Strahan on Saturday. However, unlike their men counterparts, their blowout win over Northwestern State doesn't guarantee them anything.

The SLC women's standings yesterday were not nearly as chaotic as the men's. In fact, they looked close to what the men's standings look like now: 7 teams guaranteed a spot and 3 teams fighting for the last spot--Southeastern Louisiana, Texas State, and McNeese State. However, there's not a 3-way tie in the fight for the last spot; instead there's one team in position to knock the other two out of contention: SLU.

The Bobcats are barely breathing in the discussion of the Southland Conference tournament, but with help from other conference foes, there is a chance the ‘Cats nab the 9th and bottom seed. Why the 9th spot and not the 8th, as the SLC only takes eight teams to the tournament? Central Arkansas, sitting at 10-4 and 2nd in the SLC East, is in their last year of postseason ineligbility due to their move up from Division 2 to Division 1.

So, what does Texas State, currently sitting in a tie for 10th place in the SLC standings, have to do to get to Katy? Well, the Bobcats first have to win out to secure at least the possibility of a berth. Then, Southeastern Louisiana, who does not hold a tiebreaker because of their loss to Texas State earlier this season, cannot win another game. Texas State badly needed a Central Arkansas win over Southeastern today, but didn't get one. The Lady Lions were heavy underdogs coming into Saturday's game vs. UCA, especially since the Sugar Bears demolished Southeastern in Conway 75-55 back on January 27th. That's what made it all the more shocking when SLU returned the favor in Hammond with a 77-50 obliteration of Central Arkansas today. That jumped Southeastern's SLC record to 5-9 and put the magic number down to 1 for the Lady Lions to secure a bid. Even if the 'Cats and Cowgirls of McNeese win out, it won't matter if SLU wins one of their last two.

Complicating things more is McNeese State, who is also 3-11 but defeated the 'Cats to hold the tiebreaker. McNeese hosts Southeastern on Wednesday, and the underdog Cowgirls have to win to keep the Bobcats' slim postseason chances alive. Then, McNeese most lose at Central Arkansas next Saturday to prevent them from getting a 5th win that would beat Texas State's 5th win if the 'Cats won out. So, for Texas State to make it to Katy, they must win out to finish 5-11, Southeastern needs to finish 5-11 by losing out, and McNeese needs to finish 4-12 by beating SLU but losing to UCA. Is your head spinning yet?

In order to win out, the 'Cats must go through UTSA and SHSU first. The Roadrunners may be ripe for an upset on Texas State's senior day on Wednesday, especially if the Bobcats play like they did today against the Lady Demons. However, a significant obstacle is the March 6th Saturday game against a suddenly surging SHSU program in Huntsville. After burying the Bearkats so far into the ground for most of the last decade that it seemed that the Bobcat-Bearkat was a "rivalry" in name only, Texas State has now lost their last three to Sam Houston State. The incorrectly spelled 'Kats have matched their win total from last year with 6, something unheard of in Huntsville since the mid to late 1990's. This could be one of those games where Texas State plays their best and still loses, especially since SHSU has tended to shoot insane numbers from 3-point-land against the Bobcats as of late.

As for the top of the SLC standings, Lamar was once the runaway favorite but could relinquish the regular season title to SFA if the Lady Cardinals lose their last two and the Ladyjacks win their last two. Central Arkansas or Texas A&M - Corpus Christi could also potentially get a share of the regular season title if Lamar tanks and either one wins out, but neither is a threat to take the #1 seed in the SLC tournament from the Lady Cards.

Well, that should about wrap up our look at the SLC Postseason picture. And no, there won't be a quiz later about what you just read, so don't fret.

-Will Butler, KTSW Sports Director/Blog Editor